The loss situation of the hottest plastics will be

2022-10-03
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The loss situation of plastics will be reversed, and the strong pattern will continue in the future.

since June, the current price of plastics has almost approached the production cost price, and enterprises are facing the edge of loss. At this time, the market accelerates the destocking. On the one hand, the summer beverage consumption season is coming, and the downstream procurement is picking up rapidly; On the other hand, due to the continuous decline of prices, the import volume has been significantly reduced, which has played a positive role in stabilizing the price of plastics. The government once again made it clear that in the second half of the year, it would continue to maintain a positive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which boosted market confidence, and the plastic price also ushered in a strong rebound. In view of the improvement of the situation, it is expected that the plastic price will continue to rise after a short-term rest

from the perspective of macro economy

although there is still great uncertainty in the current domestic and foreign economy, the market is desalinating the impact of the euro debt crisis, and the market response has changed from panic to bland. With the announcement of the huge rescue plan in Europe, the smooth liquidation of the short-term debt of major debtor countries, and the stress tests of banks in various countries are better than market expectations, market confidence has recovered rapidly. There are obvious signs of warming in the peripheral markets. It is clear that China will continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, accelerate economic restructuring, and China's economy will develop in a more beneficial and healthy direction. Based on the fact that countries maintain low interest rates for a long time, it is bound to cause inflation. In the early stage of the euro debt crisis, the market was more worried about the future economic outlook, and the outlook for commodity demand was not optimistic, and commodities showed a rapid downward trend. At present, the shadow of the euro debt crisis has gradually dissipated, the long short transition in the commodity market is fast, bulk commodities have significantly strengthened, and some varieties have entered the rising channel. It is expected that the inflationary pressure will rise in the third quarter

with the recovery of market confidence, although plastic traders dare not stock up a lot, they are positive in receiving goods. The original strategy of fast forward and fast sales has been changed to fast forward and slow sales. The upstream manufacturers have also raised prices significantly, and the current price rebound is strong. It is expected that in the future, after a short-term rest, it will continue to rise, and the high point above the main contract 1101 is 11200 yuan/ton

from the perspective of supply and demand structure

first, PE production capacity continued to expand in the first half of 2010, with monthly production at a continuous high level

in June, domestic PE production was 909600 tons, an increase of 320300 tons year-on-year (589300 tons), an increase of 54.35%; Compared with may, the domestic PE output (856800 tons) increased by 52800 tons, an increase of 6.16%. The monthly cumulative output was 4.9602 million tons, an increase of 1.1844 million tons or 31.37% year-on-year in 2009 (3.7758 million tons). It can be seen from the above data that after the capacity expansion, the domestic PE production will remain normal, and the monthly output will also increase significantly due to the capacity expansion

II. PE imports fell for three consecutive months and fell significantly

in June 2010, the total import of PE was 486500 tons, a decrease of 10.65% month on month (54.45) and 32.2% year-on-year (71.75). Among them, the high-pressure import was 90800 tons, a month on month decrease of 21.48%, a year-on-year decrease of 18.3%, the low-pressure import was 244700 tons, a month on month decrease of 8.29%, a year-on-year decrease of 42.88%, and the linear import was 151000 tons, a month on month decrease of 6.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 15.11%

data source: Sanli futures of Shanghai chemical exchange

from the import data, since PE imports hit a record high of 865600 tons in March, imports fell for three consecutive months in the second quarter. The gap between the period of one advance and one retreat can be imagined, and the decline rate is relatively fast, mainly due to the increase of domestic supply and the inhibition of imports. Last month, we predicted that plastic imports would continue to decline in June, July and August to ease domestic supply pressure. We still maintain this view this month, but the decline will slow down in July and August. As far as the current PE market is concerned, the domestic PE supply has largely eased the external dependence. Although the current import dependence is still large, while the domestic supply is growing rapidly, the import will remain at the level of 500000 tons

from the output and import data, it can be seen that when the plastic price approaches the cost price this time, the domestic PE output has not decreased, but the import volume has decreased significantly year-on-year, which fully shows that the answer to domestic self-sufficiency is, of course, the positive rate has increased, the external dependence has shown a downward trend, and domestic PE competes with imported PE. At the same time of going through destocking, the plastic price has ushered in a strong rebound, and the current price linkage has risen, indicating that the downstream demand has picked up significantly

III. The peak demand season is coming, and the extremely depressed period of boosting plastic prices has passed. With the acceleration of de stocking, plastic prices have stopped falling and stabilized. In the third quarter, the consumption peak of summer beverage and cold product packaging film has entered. This year, the continuous high temperature weather has greatly increased the consumption of summer beverage and cold product, and the boost to plastic demand is more obvious. In August, downstream processing enterprises began to carry out mid autumn festival The preparation of packaging film for the National Day holiday and the National Day holiday will greatly boost the demand for packaging film

on the whole, with the rapid increase of output and the easing of imports, the demand shows the characteristics of rapid recovery with the advent of the peak consumption season. The domestic plastic market has changed from the pattern of excess supply to tight supply. The 1009 contract of plastic in recent months rebounded from 9000 yuan/ton to around 10000 yuan/ton, and still maintained a strong upward momentum. The 1101 inter year contract performed better, and it is likely to continue its strength after a short-term rest

in terms of cost,

the euro debt crisis gradually faded out of the market, the US dollar index reversed and fell, and crude oil surged and strengthened, supporting plastic prices. The US dollar's turn from strong to weak marks the gradual recovery of market confidence, the decline in the willingness of risk aversion demand, and the rapid recovery of market risk appetite. At the same time, it also shows that the market expectations for the future economy have also improved significantly. The continued decline of the US dollar will promote the substantial strengthening of commodities denominated in US dollars, and the monetary policies of various countries to maintain low interest rates for a long time will inevitably lead to high inflation after the economic recovery. It is expected that as the economy gradually stabilizes, the price of crude oil will strengthen in the third quarter, which will significantly support the price of plastics

from the perspective of technical analysis

among them, there are no less than 10 factors that have a great impact on the service life and service life of engineering products (equipment). In June, the price of Liansu hit the bottom. In late July, there was a V-shaped reversal, and the technical form gradually became stronger. At present, the downward trend of plastics has turned into a long market, with active multi-party buying. Recently, the main contract of plastic futures has completed the month change. The substantial increase in early positions and trading volume laid the foundation for this round of strong rebound. From the perspective of daily line, Liansu 1101 contract has strengthened, and it is likely that the market will continue to be strong in the future. The author expects that the plastic price will strengthen again after a short-term rest, with the first target price of 11000 yuan and the second target price of around 11800 yuan

summary

at present, the negative factors in the plastic market have basically dissipated, the positive has gradually become the dominant market, the plastic spot inventory has decreased significantly, while the import volume has also decreased rapidly, the de stocking has been completed, and the excess state has been significantly improved. At present, the demand has entered the peak of consumption. The summer drinks and two-day stock up have been started, and the demand has been boosted by pressing the "start" button on the counter. The market mentality has stabilized, traders are actively replenishing, and manufacturers have raised prices continuously. What the market needs in the future is to maintain an appropriate import volume and maintain the balance between supply and demand. Once the import is expanded to more than 700000 tons again, the market will be under pressure again. If imports remain low in the later period, even plastic prices will maintain a strong pattern. If the supply expands significantly again, the plastic price will be under pressure. It is estimated that the next target price is around 11000 points and the second target price is around 11800 points. Due to the current plastic price rebound, which is expected to enter a technical rest in the short term, investors are advised not to blindly peak, wait for the momentum again, and choose the opportunity to participate

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