Analysis of the hottest market in December, 2006,

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Market analysis: plastic raw materials still have some room to rise in December 2006

first, market analysis in November

in November, the domestic polyolefin market, supported by tight supply, delays in the arrival of ocean futures in Hong Kong, dealers' reluctance to sell and other favorable factors, all products rose in different degrees, but the lack of downstream demand made the rise of some varieties relatively weak

in November, the transaction price of LDPE general grade (East China market, the same below) was 12200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 12750 yuan/ton at the end of the month; HDPE film price from the beginning of the month to the end of the month: yuan/ton; HDPE wire drawing: yuan/ton; PP wire drawing: yuan/ton; PP copolymerization: yuan/ton; GPPS (class I): yuan/ton

market trend characteristics and factor analysis in November:

1. The polyethylene market price increased significantly

in November, the domestic polyethylene market price was mainly characterized by linear and high-pressure varieties, and the low pressure rose moderately, which was mainly driven by factors such as less market resources, the originally expected delay in the arrival of ocean going goods in Hong Kong, and dealers' reluctance to sell. During this period, there were repeated market ups and downs. By the end of the month, the polyethylene market was once again hyped due to the closure of petrochemical accounts, and the quotation of out of stock products was further increased. The fund will gain industry support and be absorbed by dealers. For the continuous rise caused by insufficient resources, middlemen generally hold a cautious and optimistic attitude, believing that there are certain risks in the current price risk, and they are cautious to enter the market

2. The polypropylene market rose steadily

in November, the polypropylene market price basically showed a steady and rising trend, and the tight market supply promoted the role of the intermediate link in pushing up the price. However, due to the poor acceptance of the lower reaches of the factory to the higher price, the dealers did not purchase significantly, so the overall rebound strength of the market in the month was weak due to insufficient effective demand

3. The polystyrene market increased slightly

in November, the polystyrene market price rose slightly and positively. The overall benzene penetration supply in East and South China markets was insufficient, which played a fundamental role in supporting the market rise. While the upstream raw material benzene speed was measured by stopwatch, and the continuous rise of ethylene price played a positive role

Second, the market forecast in December

1. Polyethylene:

from the situation at the end of November, polyethylene market has obvious advantages in many aspects. First, there is a certain room for price adjustment in the new pricing of some varieties of domestic petrochemical in early December. Second, there is less external market resources. At present, most of them are closed, and it is expected that there is room for price adjustment in the new offer; In addition, Guangzhou petrochemical plant has been overhauled for 45 days since the middle of December. The market will have psychological expectations for the reduction of resources in the later period, and it is expected that merchants will be more reluctant to sell. While the polyethylene market price continues to rise, we still need to take into account the factors of the overall high market price and the cautious receipt of high-level merchants. At the same time, the fluctuation of crude oil still has an impact on the mentality. In the short term, the fluctuation of crude oil is still the most direct factor affecting the market mentality. Therefore, it is expected that there is still some room for market prices to rise in the first ten days of December, and then the market is cautiously optimistic, maintaining a narrow range of volatility, with little price fluctuation

2. Polypropylene:

at present, the polypropylene market is driven by the rise of crude oil, and the supply of goods is becoming less and less obvious, so the quotations of various brands continue to rise slightly. Petrochemical sales pressure is small, so the recent release volume has been small. At this time, the main driving force for the price rise is the shortage of supply to ensure that it can carry out high-speed printing smoothly. The downstream does not show a positive intention to receive goods. After the supply is supplemented in the later stage, the price cannot help falling. Therefore, at present, in the case of various varieties showing a certain profit space, most of them still focus on shipping, and it is safe to drop bags

on the whole, the optimistic attitude of market participants towards the future market is significantly strengthened. It is expected that market participants will continue to be cautious in trading in December, with stable prices, and the market is likely to continue to rise slightly

3. Gpps:

according to the current analysis, the overall inventory of intermediaries and downstream PS is slightly low; The average operation of domestic PS production plants is not high, and there is no short-term pressure for sale. The PS market price will be able to maintain a strong trend. However, considering the resumption of production of some PS devices, the tight supply situation in the later stage is expected to ease; At the same time, the overall downstream demand of PS is relatively general, and the positive support of raw material styrene may have a short-term effect. It is expected that after the slight rise of PS market in December, due to the lack of demand support, the market heat is likely to decline, resulting in an consolidation of prices

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